The United States still gets most of its energy by setting millions of tiny fires everywhere. Cars, trucks, homes and factories all burn fossil fuels in countless engines, furnaces and boilers, creating pollution that heats the planet.
To tackle climate change, those machines will need to stop polluting. And the best way to do that, experts increasingly say, is to replace them with electric versions — cars, heating systems and factories that run on clean sources of electricity like wind, solar or nuclear power.
But electrifying almost everything is a formidable task.
Transforming the economy so that more things run on clean electricity is a cornerstone of President Biden’s plan to slash emissions to nearly zero by 2050.
The New York Times used data from Evolved Energy Research, an energy modeling firm, to visualize what the nation’s energy use might look like in 2050 if the United States were able to meet the president’s climate change goals, using technology available today or just over the horizon, while minimizing costs.
In this future, far more of America’s energy would come from electricity. The country would also use less energy overall, since electric devices are often more efficient than ones that burn fossil fuels. For example, a gasoline-powered car uses only about 30 percent of the energy in its fuel to move its wheels, with most of the rest wasted as heat. An electric car uses about 80 percent of its energy.
By 2050, electricity would play a much bigger role:
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Medium-
duty trucks
Heavy-duty
trucks
Passenger vehicles
Construction
Transportation
25% electric
Industrial
Water
heating
Food
and feed
Space
heating
Cement
and lime
Residential
Iron and
steel
Commercial
Space
heating
Less energy
use in 2050
Medium-duty
trucks
Heavy-duty trucks
Buses
and rail
Passenger vehicles
Construction
Transportation
Industrial
Wood, glass and
plastic products
25% electric
Water
heating
Food, bev.
and feed
Space
heating
Cement
and lime
Washing
and drying
Agriculture
and forestry
Residential
Machinery
and electronics
Air
conditioning
Refrigeration
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
Air
conditioning
Water
heating
Refrigeration
Commercial
Lighting and
electronics
Space
heating
Lighting and
electronics
Less energy
use in 2050
There are signs the United States is already moving in a more plugged-in direction. Sales of electric vehicles broke records last year, accounting for 5.8 percent of new cars sold, and the administration has proposed regulations to ensure they make up two-thirds of sales by 2032. Electric heat pumps outsold gas furnaces for the first time last year. A new climate law is providing billions of dollars in subsidies to hasten the transition.
Plugging in isn’t the only way to cut emissions. Other options include clean hydrogen fuels, biofuels or technologies that capture pollution from the air, smokestacks or machines. But for many activities, the most straightforward solution is to go electric.
“If you ask, ‘How on Earth are we going to power the modern economy cleanly,’ nothing else makes sense,” said Saul Griffith, founder and chief scientist of Rewiring America, an advocacy group. “All roads point to electrification.”
Still, widespread electrification faces huge obstacles. It would mean replacing more than 280 million gasoline-powered cars and 200 million home appliances that run on natural gas such as furnaces, water heaters, stoves and dryers. Many Americans might balk at switching due to costs, logistics or a simple lack of interest. And some activities, such as long-haul trucking or chemical manufacturing, are difficult to electrify.
It’s also not enough to shift to electric machines if their electricity comes from power plants that burn fossil fuels. Power plant emissions have declined 40 percent since 2005 as cheaper and cleaner gas, wind and solar energy sources have replaced coal. But much of the nation’s electricity is still generated by burning gas and coal, and it is getting harder to build and connect new sources of renewable power to antiquated grids.
“There are people who say this is impossible, and people who say this isn’t challenging at all,” said Ben Haley, an energy expert and co-founder of Evolved Energy Research. “I’d say it’s somewhere in between: It’s challenging, but it’s not impossible.”
Transportation
Current Electricity Use
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Medium-duty
trucks
Heavy-duty
trucks
Buses
and rail
Heavy-duty
trucks
Buses
and rail
Medium-duty
trucks
Passenger vehicles
89% electric
Passenger vehicles
1% electric
Less total energy
use in 2050
Current Electricity Use
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Heavy-duty
trucks
Buses
and rail
Medium-
duty trucks
Passenger vehicles
1% electric
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Medium-duty
trucks
Heavy-duty
trucks
Buses
and rail
Passenger vehicles
89% electric
Less total energy
use in 2050
America’s transportation system, which includes everything from cars to boats to airplanes, still runs almost entirely on fuels derived from oil. Only a tiny fraction of cars and trucks today are electric.
Passenger vehicles are widely considered the most feasible to electrify as battery-powered cars, S.U.V.s and pickup trucks enter the mainstream, though high costs and the availability of charging stations remain major hurdles.
By contrast, heavy-duty trucks that carry goods thousands of miles cross-country could prove harder to electrify, particularly if they require large batteries that take hours to charge. Some truck makers like Daimler and Volvo have said that a better alternative would be hydrogen fuel made from wind or solar power, though that would require extensive new infrastructure to make and distribute all that hydrogen.
“Batteries are in the lead right now, especially since we already have a charging network being built,” said Tom Walker, the transportation technology manager at Clean Air Task Force, a nonprofit environmental group. “But it’s not clear that electrification will make the most sense everywhere, so we should keep our options open.”
Aviation is even tougher. Today’s batteries are too bulky to power all but the smallest planes. For longer flights and bigger jets, airlines may need other options, such as fuels made from agricultural waste or more elaborate fuels that recycle carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which are still extremely costly.
Residential and Commercial Buildings
Current Electricity Use
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Water
heating
Space
heating
Washing
and dry.
Water heating
Air
conditioning
Space heating
Refrigeration
Washing
and dry.
Refrigeration
Air conditioning
16% electric
Water
heating
Refrigeration
Air conditioning
Residential
Space
heating
Refrigeration
Lighting and
electronics
Lighting
and elec.
Water
heating
Commercial
Lighting and
electronics
Less total energy
use in 2050
Space
heating
Lighting
and elec.
Current Electricity Use
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Water heating
Space heating
Washing
and dry.
Refrigeration
16% electric
Residential
Air conditioning
Refrigeration
Commercial
Water
heating
Lighting and
electronics
Space
heating
Lighting
and elec.
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Water
heating
Space
heating
Washing
and dry.
Air
conditioning
Refrigeration
Air conditioning
Water
heating
Refrigeration
Space
heating
Lighting and
electronics
Lighting
and elec.
Less total energy
use in 2050
Most homes and businesses already use electricity to power air-conditioners, lights, refrigerators and other appliances.
But millions of buildings also burn fossil fuels, mainly natural gas or fuel oil, to power furnaces, hot water heaters, stoves, ovens and clothes dryers, together producing 13 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
Electric alternatives already exist for most gas appliances. Electric heat pumps, for instance, essentially act as two-way air-conditioners that can provide cooling in the summer and heating in the winter. Heat pump technology has steadily improved in recent years, with many models able to operate efficiently in subzero temperatures.
But for many single-family homes or apartment buildings, the economics of switching from gas to electric heat may be forbidding, since natural gas is cheap. Some homes require costly upgrades to electric panels, or new ductwork.
And while last year’s climate law offers subsidies for electric appliances, many contractors are still unfamiliar with heat pumps and electricians are in short supply. The gas industry has also fought hard against electrification policies.
“Every home is different and the costs of electrification can vary pretty widely,” said Ryan Jones, a co-founder of Evolved Energy.
Another potential challenge: Many electric grids today are set up to deal with power demand peaking in the summer, when air-conditioners run full blast. But if electric heating becomes widespread, utilities will have to figure out how to handle surging demand in the winter — when, incidentally, there is less solar power available. (Currently, utilities stockpile vast quantities of natural gas underground for wintertime, which is much tougher to do with electricity.)
Industry
Current Electricity Use
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Machinery and
electronics
Construction
Agriculture
and forestry
Construction
25% electric
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
7%
electric
Food and
animal feed
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
Cement
and lime
Agriculture
and forestry
Food and
animal feed
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
Machinery and
electronics
Cement
and lime
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
Less total energy
use in 2050
Current Electricity Use
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in 2021
Machinery and
electronics
Agriculture
and forestry
Construction
7%
electric
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
Food and
animal feed
Cement
and lime
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
2050 Net Zero Pathway
Electricity as percent of total energy consumed in a high-electrification scenario
Construction
Wood, glass
and plastic
products
25% electric
Food and
animal feed
Cement
and lime
Agriculture
and forestry
Paper
products
Iron and
steel
Machinery and
electronics
Less total energy
use in 2050
American industries often need huge amounts of heat for a dizzying array of activities: creating steam, melting aluminum, tempering glass, processing sugar, even drying car parts. Today, much of this heat is created by burning natural gas or coal.
In theory, many companies could instead generate heat using electricity. One recent study by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that about half of industrial energy use had “high” or “medium” potential for electrification, including production of aluminum, machinery, wood, rubber and some plastics. But that is often significantly more expensive than generating heat by burning natural gas.
Other industrial processes are trickier to electrify. Cement kilns and glass manufacturers, for instance, often need temperatures in excess of 2,500 degrees Fahrenheit. The chemical industry, a major source of emissions, often uses fossil fuels as a raw material for its products, with no easy substitute.
Perhaps the biggest hurdle to electrifying industry is the lack of incentives. While the government offers tax credits for electric cars and home heat pumps, it has largely ignored the industrial sector, whose energy use is expected to keep growing in the coming decades. Many companies are wary of testing out new processes without government support.
“If we just waited around for another century, industry would probably move to electrification on its own, because it’s more efficient than burning things for heat,” said Chris Bataille, a research fellow at the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy. “But that’s obviously not fast enough to meet our climate goals.”
Can the Grid Handle It?
Electrification would require sweeping changes to the nation’s power grids. Under the scenario visualized above, total electricity demand in the United States would roughly double by 2050, even as overall energy use went down.
To meet that demand, electric utilities would need to add staggering amounts of new emissions-free power while making sure that all those newly electrified cars, homes and factories don’t strain the system and cause blackouts. They would also have to construct large new power lines across the country, both to accommodate far-flung renewable projects and to improve the reliability of the grid.
Yet transmission projects have become notoriously hard to build. And some experts have warned that the clean energy transition will falter without them.
“If we’re going to rely on the grid for so much more of our daily life, then we better start planning now to make sure it’s a lot more resilient than it is today,” said Susan Tierney, an energy consultant with the Analysis Group.
It’s not a small concern. Last summer, amid a severe heat wave and electricity crunch, California asked residents to avoid charging their electric cars during peak hours. That raised questions about whether the grid could handle a surge of new demand at a time when climate change is already fueling extreme weather.
There are potential solutions. Utilities, for instance, could get better at scheduling when electric vehicles and other appliances are charged, so that they don’t all power up at the same time and strain equipment or require the construction of costly new power plants. More battery storage could help, too.
Even so, some experts remain skeptical.
“To assume this will be the world we live in, in a few decades, is premature,” said David Rapson, an economist at the University of California, Davis. He has said that rigid electric vehicle mandates such as those by California or the Biden administration may be too aggressive, potentially driving up costs and stifling other climate solutions.
Others point out that electrifying everything — or at least most things — will have broad benefits, including deep cuts in air pollution. Matteo Muratori, an analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, likened the transition from fossil fuels to electric to “going from analog to digital.”
“There’s a lot more you can do with electricity as a fuel,” he said, “more efficiency, less waste, avoiding pollution — it’s not just about greenhouse gases.”
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